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03/09/22 10:27 PM #10774    

 

John Jackson

MM, Jim, Tom and others, if you look at the actual numbers (and ignore Fox News and right wing ideologues), for the last several years  the U.S. has been pretty much self sufficient in oil if you define self sufficiency as producing as much oil and oil products as we consume. Sure, we import some oil and oil products (gasoline and heating oil) into some parts of the U.S, but we also export both oil and oil products from other parts and overall we export slightly more than we consume.

We are also the world’s’ largest producer of oil and oil products (followed, in order, by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Canada and China) although we are only the 7th largest exporter because we consume most of what we produce.

Biden’s temporary suspension of new oil leases for federal lands has absolutely no effect on our current situation for a multitude of reasons, the most important of which is that oil companies are sitting on enough unused leases granted to them previously to last ten years at the rates they are currently being used (Dan Cody made this point yesterday). And the process of exploring and then producing oil from leased land requires at least five years, so nothing connected with leasing can explain the run-up in oil or gasoline prices over the last year (let alone the incredible spike of the last two weeks).

And if we had really had a shortage of oil and oil products in the U.S we would be seeing reports of shortages and long lines at gas stations.

There is a very simple reason that gas prices are high - the price for oil and oil products are set by supply and demand globally, not by U.S supply and demand. Until the Ukrainian war, oil prices were up because OPEC slashed production in 2020 during the pandemic as global demand tanked. Then, as much of the world economy recovered in 2021, OPEC increased production only modestly (not enough to meet demand) and prices spiked. Oil prices also tend to spike in times of war and other uncertainty and this is especially true when one of the combatants (Russia) is also the world’s third largest exporter (gold is also up more than 20% over the past month).

The run-up in oil is compounded by the fact that although the U.S. is now one of the few countries banning Russian oil, traders are reluctant to buy it fearing they may be stuck with it if other countries enact similar bans. And since Russian oil is now being at least partially shunned by traders, the price of the rest of the world’s oil goes up.

Holding Presidents (Democrats or Republicans) responsible for gas prices makes ZERO sense because the prices for oil produced in the U.S. are set by global markets. If you want a scapegoat, look at Exxon, Mobil and Chevron who are unwilling to sell oil produced in the U.S. at $60 (the price a year ago which easily covered their costs of production) when they could just as easily sell their oil on global markets today for $120. So you can be sure that the U. S.-produced oil that that gets refined and goes into your tank as gasoline costs $120, the global price.


03/10/22 12:40 AM #10775    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

It is disingenous of Biden to try to assert that by not increasing U.S. oil production his actions have not in any major way impacted gas prices. Gas prices were up 48% BEFORE Russia invaded Ukraine and after Biden had taken actions early in 2021 to make energy production more difficult, thereby making it more expensive. For example, Biden proposed ending a wide range of tax benefits for drilling and exploration, something supporters said would hopefully “discourage additional oil and gas development.” This made the process more costly, particularly when competing with heavily subsidized renewables. Additionally, in June of 2021, Biden suspended oil and gas leases that the Trump Administration had granted in Alaska.

Furthermore, capital is needed by domestic energy producers to get them financially through the regulatory processes of obtaining the permits and afterwards to begin the actual drilling which, as Jim stated, may or may not actually produce any oil. Currently there is a trend for big banks to deny that capital based on ESG (Environmental and Social Governance) requirements i.e. disclosing their climate environmental, social and sustainabiltiy actiivities. ESG investing, being pushed by the largest firms on Wall Street, is the latest effort to force companies to turn away from their core business and divert resources to address the ever evolving social and environmental concerns of progressive activists.

As for long lines at gas stations, I would point out that when I spoke to my brother-in-law today, he told me that he was still waiting in line at the gas station near Orlando because everyone was there to get the just reduced price from $4.39/gal to $4/gal.  Of course, the way things are headed....this price may actually look like a bargain in another month.


03/10/22 12:56 PM #10776    

 

John Jackson

MM, your post alleging that Biden’s actions have caused the recent run-up in oil and gas prices is full of claims that on the surface appear reasonable but if you look closely are highly misleading. Some facts:

Less than 10% of U.S. oil production is from leased federal lands with the rest from state and local lands.

Biden’s temporary suspension of new leases in no way affects oil companies’ right to develop the huge number of leases they have already been granted.  And, at the rates they have been using existing leases, they currently have roughly 10 years worth of unused leases they can draw upon for new production.

The oil industry gets huge tax breaks/subsidies and pays much less in taxes than most corporations. Since the U.S. is already self sufficient in oil, it doesn’t bother me in the least that we start to chip away at their perks. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/011216/understanding-how-oil-companies-pay-taxes.asp

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that U.S. oil production will set an all-time record in 2023. https://fortune.com/2022/02/18/oil-production-permian-basin-rises-2023/#:~:text=Domestic%20production%20will%20rise%20to,12.2%20million%20barrels%20in%202019

I’ll grant you that the leasing suspension, if it becomes permanent, might in 5-10 years start to crimp the small percentage (10%) of U.S oil production that occurs on federal lands, but it is having ZERO effect now.  And in 5-10 years, our need for oil/gas will be considerably less as electric vehicles increasingly replace conventional cars. 

Instead, since oil produced in the U.S. is sold at global market prices, the recent run-up in gas prices are due almost entirely to:

- OPEC slashing production in 2020 during the pandemic and then failing to increase production as the world economy came roaring back in 2021 and 2022.

- The destabilizing effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on world oil markets (which alone has added 50 cents to the price of gas in the past two weeks).


03/10/22 01:23 PM #10777    

 

David Mitchell

M/M

Do you really think that is why BP has invested $255 million in solar farms? 

 

Or why the late T. Boone Pickens (oil Tycoon) wished we had a better developed electric infrastructure thoughout the middle soutwest so he could invest in more solar farms?  


03/10/22 01:25 PM #10778    

 

David Mitchell

Oil companies - huge tax breaks - gee whizz, who'da thunk it?

 

 


03/10/22 01:47 PM #10779    

 

David Mitchell

Meanwhile back at the ranch..................

I'm sorry but sending Kamala to make another speech isn't getting it.

The question seems to be,,,,how many more hospitals (16 or 18 so far) or nuclear reactor stations will it take before we can't keep making the arguement that we might provoke him to push the nuclear button?

For god sake let them have those Polish Migs!

Before it won't even matter.

 

 


03/10/22 05:25 PM #10780    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

John,  I can agree with you that there are numerous extenuating global events that impact oil prices, however it can not be denied that Biden 's efforts, as my post pointed out, to punish the gas and oil industry have only succeeded in further punishing the American lower/middle class who are being squeezed by the increasing higher costs of living.  The fact that the U.S. is now facing a  severe inflation and energy crisis, and yet Biden is only willing to beg for oil from hostile dictators rather than expedite more drilling on our own lands, is proof that crushing the oil and gas industry is more important to his administration than the well-being of Amercan citizens.   


03/10/22 06:49 PM #10781    

 

James Hamilton, M. D.

That Ever Changing Virus!

Viruses mutate constantly but this is a bit different.

The Delta variant just joined the Omicron variant to create an interesting bug. Somewhere, somebody became infected, simultaneously, with both variants and the two merged inside some of that person's cells to form a "Deltamicron" virus. The spike protein of the Omicron apparently hooked up with the "backbone" of the Delta and a lot of new viruses were expelled from that cell.

So far, 17 patients from the USA and Europe have been identified. Just how transmissible and severe the disease from this chimeric agent will be is unknown.

Stay tuned...

Jim


03/11/22 09:20 AM #10782    

 

John Maxwell

Curious...how many of the energy fans in the audience have ever worked in an ERG field, besides Dave? Like an oil spill or flood calamity. And, besides Dave, how many of you change your own oil in your car. Who knows how to neutralize battery acid spills? Where do I store my extra mercury? How many of you have spent time on a deep water oil platform or steamed an oil tanker through a canal? Who has installed a solar power system? How many of our classmates seen the solar powered car race from Indianapolis to Golden Coloado? Where is post graduate energy curriculum taught? Where were the first oil drilling fields in America? Where was the first refineries located? How many rivers in Ohio have caught fire? What do you do with your spent petroleum based products once you've used what you needed? Where do you find oil and, how do you find it? What are the byproducts of coal fired power plants? And how are these polutants dealt with? If you can check off one of these, then you can yak about global energy, otherwise stow it!

03/11/22 09:55 AM #10783    

 

John Jackson

Jack,

Interesting questions…

OK, I used to change my own oil (and do tune-ups and brake jobs), but I don’t now – does that count?

I do know that the first oil well in the U.S.  was in Titusville, PA (and I didn’t Google it).  Not sure how I know this - Mr. Manion's  U.S history class?

Also I know at least one Ohio river that caught on fire – the Cuyahoga.  If there are others, do I get partial credit?

And, of course, any damn fool knows you pour your waste petroleum products down the sink.


03/11/22 10:56 AM #10784    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

"The globalism in the 19th and early 20th century, with its emphasis on government within a nation getting out of the way and promoting the freedom to innovate, trade and associate freely with others, brought about wealth and liberal democracy throughout the world.  On the other hand, 21st Century Globalism is about control, rules, central planning, coercion and dependence --  which spawns poverty, societal upheaval, the unleashing of authoritarianism and inevitable military conflict.  This scenario now playing out in Ukraine."  Steve McCann

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/03/_the_war_in_ukraine_has_exposed_the_perils_of_21st_century_globalism.html


03/11/22 12:11 PM #10785    

 

John Jackson

MM, nothing that Biden can do can make a significant change in oil production in the United States in less than a few years unless, of course,  you favor the Government nationalizing the oil companies and setting prices.  And since oil produced in the U. S. is sold at global prices, the U.S. would have to inject a huge amount of oil on the world market to bring global prices down significantly.

And, if you’re interested in helping people of low and moderate income (who sorely need help because of large and increasing income inequality) I submit that raising the minimum wage (which liberals and ordinary Americans support overwhelmingly and conservatives oppose) will do far more to help those at the lower end of the income scale.  There is no doubt that high gas prices are a hardship for many struggling families, but increasing their paychecks matters more.  And there is a “knock-on” effect - raising the minimum wage also tends to increase the earnings of those who are paid slightly above the minimum since many employers are ashamed to admit their employees earn only minimum wage. 

You might also get on the bandwagon and support the Biden proposal that would cap child care expenses at 7% of family income.  This is a proposal that will help low and moderate income families, while providing nothing for the well-off. 

You could also support the numerous tax reform measures advanced by Democrats that require the wealthy to pay more.  You should also oppose measures like the Trump tax cut that was skewed overwhelmingly to help the rich and corporations while throwing crumbs to people of modest means.


03/11/22 05:21 PM #10786    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

John, I disagree completely with your premise that Biden opening up more drilling could not positively impact not only the U.S., but countries around the world. He simply does not want to put his ideology aside for the good of the nation, because he vowed to destroy the fossil fuel industry. 

As for the minimum wage....well....that all sounds very compassionate, but it has negative real world consequences that does not always benefit the worker or society in general.  

"The decision to raise the minimum wage is a value judgement -- a conscious decision to have fewer working at a higher wage than more working at a market-based wage. "One of the first things taught in Economics 101 is the demand curve. Raise the price of something and demand for that something goes down. And vice versa. Put your house on the market for a higher price than it’s worth and see if any buyers are interested. Conversely, set the asking price for less than it’s worth and you will have a bidding war.  Labor is no different. A wage is the price of labor. Raise the wage and fewer employers will want to pay that wage, instead employing fewer workers or giving them less hours. Great for the worker receiving the new higher wage and maintaining their hours. Not so good for the employee laid off or now working part time. Or those replaced with self-serve kiosks, another option to reduce labor costs."

As for supporting taxation of the wealthy.....I support a government reform whereby federal and state governments actually balance their budgets, and I would support investigating putting the U.S. on a flat tax system.   

"Taxation was meant to support a government that provides only for personal safety and national security, property protection, a court system, and a reasonable approach to rules of the market game."  The basic point is that we only need taxes to support the very limited but important functions that government was originally designed to do. Consider that:  "A little over one hundred years ago, all government spending in America was about 2% of GDP. That was enough to support the government services the Founders designed. n 2020, the government spending level was above 60% of GDP; larger than at the height of WWII (45.7%). There is no analysis showing that such spending is an improvement on the period when 2% was the norm." 


03/11/22 06:07 PM #10787    

 

John Jackson

MM, I've said my piece (and then some) so as not tax the patience of our classmates further, you have the last say.

And, God knows, why are we debating this stuff when we are only days away from the holiest day of the year, which occurs next Thursday?  I may redirect  my energies toward  suggesting some music appropriate for the season. 


03/11/22 08:22 PM #10788    

 

David Mitchell




03/12/22 07:39 AM #10789    

 

Frank Ganley

I used to change my own oil and lube my car but today I can't for a few reasons, one it is difficult to reach my filter so I have to have it have it done by a professional and secondly I am to old and stiff to get under the car to do it. Oil was first discovered by a man named Drake in Titusville pa which is somewhere between Philadelphia and Pittsburg. Being from Philadelphia we learned that in our grade school history class because Pennsylvania was so proud of the fact. The residue from a coal furnace is a dried up rock like substance that must be chipped out of the furnace every so often. I know that from working at &DeSantis florist on Henderson road, not moved to Kenny road, s every summer that I worked in the green house I would go into the furnace and shovel and chip it clean, not a fun job and very dirty. The other question on disposal I take all my chemical like petroleum by products to the local dump which has a special container to throw it away. 


03/12/22 08:25 AM #10790    

 

Frank Ganley

John, with all due respect for your well thought out and conceived thoughts on minimum wage to quote the judge in my cousin Vinny"overruled".as Mary margret so eloquently increase wages and hours are cut. In a company that is sales based the salesmen who is making an impediment of money is either fired and his territory taken over by more salesman or he sees his territory cut and more are hired for that job. Secondly the minimum wage was initiated as to be a starting wage. Then with time and experience the worker is paid more. Tell me a business now who hires high school kids other than a fast food chain ,! The next problem with a living wage $15 an hour, what do you increase the wages of people who have served the company well  , what do you raise their wages to. You can not use the parable about the worker who in the morning was hired at one drachma and at noon he the owner needs more more laborers and hired them at the same wage and later adds more workers at the same wage and come time to pay the worker the first group complains that they worked longer and deserve more pay but the own says that is what you agreed to do collect and be quiet and be on your way. Note you have created a monster in todays world. I and you all worked for many years for minimum s wage while in high school and college. We knew we weren't going to stay there, we made enough to support us. After college we were given a starting wage and worked to improve our lot in life and reaped the fruits of our laborers. Note the uneducated, the people who are unmarried and with children demand a living wage to start! So you will see them laid off and out of a job because who wants to post $5 for amcdonalds singe burger or for those that remember a Sandy's burger. Not I! You will see college grades working at Mickey d's and after time promoted to management positions and train more college grads and so in. Either that happens out there will be no more fast food resturant. Why as Mary Margaret pointed out that it is beyond its market value! I hate recalling stories of the past of gas only.$.25 a gallon, a burger $.15, a pack of cigs $.25 and water was free. College for all is ridiculous as is high school but combine a high school's curriculum and a trade school note we're on to something. Todays students who are not particularly gifted toward higher education should have a choice of what do they want to learn that they like, my mechanic charges $125 an hour to fix my car. We are remodeling our house and the plumber e needed charge by the job afigure that still makes me shudder and hard to swallow, the men who laid our floor was not cheap and that didn't include the flooring.! So there is teasing that Is subsided and programs to become a skilled laborer that will lead them to better wages and living conditions. The construction promises every American, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. That is the pursuit not guaranteed happiness. 


03/12/22 10:00 AM #10791    

 

Monica Haban (Brown)

This Season of Lent

Fast and Pray

Fast from complaining and criticizing

Pray for World Peace

 

Imagine you have ONE hour to pack your suitcase.  You may not ever see your home and family again.  It isn't a hurricane you're fleeing, it's a war caused by a maniac man.

What's in your suitcase?  You need not reply.  Just think about it.

 

Our ancestors arrived in this country on ships in their teens and early twneties, and am ever grateful that they did.             

                                                                 Be Grateful                                                                             

   I've lost too many friends in the past few years.  Too many wakes and funerals.  One of my grandchildren asked me if I have any friends left, or have they all died.

                                                                         Be Kind

We have lots of classmates on this Forum "in the wings".  Reach out to them.  How are they doing?  Don't wait to see their obit in the paper.

                                                                     Fast and Pray

 


03/12/22 10:43 AM #10792    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

Wonderful reminders, Monica. Thank you.


03/12/22 12:26 PM #10793    

 

David Mitchell

I'm sure many of you have seen this - a picture is worth a thousand words!

 


03/12/22 06:57 PM #10794    

 

Michael McLeod

Another darkly amusing and dead-on gem from Garrison Keillor. I love how the first sentence -- a spare eleven words, all but one single syllables -- crisply distills the point he's about to make. Then the last sentence grabs you by the shoulders and drives it home.

Garrison is actually a very shy man. You'd never know it from this.

 

The war is far away and then it is up close. I write a parody of Frost’s “Stopping By Woods” in which the man stops to pee and out of nowhere I remember the photograph in the Times of a Ukrainian family trying to escape the Russian advance, hurrying through a small town to catch a train to somewhere, a young boy, girl, mother, a family friend, carrying packs and a dog in a carrier, towing a suitcase, and here they lie freshly dead, murdered by Russian mortars shelling civilians, no military engagement nearby, and the image stays with you, the friend face-up, the boy and girl lying on their sides, and who will tell the father who is probably fighting somewhere, who will bury them, who will commemorate these senseless horrible deaths?

The Minneapolis paper ran a story about the Times’s decision to run the picture but didn’t run the picture, which isn’t gruesome or bloody, but simply terribly real. Four people suddenly killed for no reason except to cause suffering. The Russians have shelled power plants, hospitals, refugees, and war crimes are fundamental to Putin’s policy, and the photograph was the Times’s way to show that. The picture is clear in my mind days later.

I’m at an age where all the people who might’ve reassured me about this war are long dead and so I steady myself. Most of what agitated us a month ago is gone and forgotten, wiped out by the Russian tanks. We’re done talking about gender pronouns and woke tropes and done with the anti-mask b.s. and the Florida Orange, he is less relevant than pink plastic sandals, and what matters are the women and children fleeing for their lives, no idea what lies ahead, just the thought that Ukraine must survive and the civilized world must punish the war criminals.

     
 

And then, after some restless nights, you get one whole night of good sleep and awaken in gratitude and make coffee and read that the Senate has unanimously passed a law against lynching as a hate crime. It only applies here, not to the Russians in Ukraine, but the shock of seeing the words “unanimous” and “Senate” in one sentence — what will happen next? Will the American people — some of them? A fraction? Ten percent? — demand that cheap political blather be given a rest for a while and let us form a united front out of love of our country at its best in crisis?

Inflation is a cost of COVID, along with a million dead: we can game this for political advantage, meanwhile the nation faces the challenge of standing up for our fundamental decent democratic values. We’ve fought wars that we inherited from colonialism, but this is different.

The Russian people are in the grip of a madman who sits at the end of a forty-foot table, knowing that he might well wind up hanging from a lamppost one of these days. The difference between his rule and our democracy could not be clearer. Republicans who believe the 2020 election was fraudulent are saying that we’re the same. This lie needs to be set aside for historians to consider, along with the idea that January 6 was a normal political protest. There are urgent questions to take up. Murderous hardware is being brought to bear on a free people and that family lies dead in the town square.

     
 

I was looking all over for my phone the other day after it disappeared in plain sight and I bumbled around in a state of confusion — I come from the era when the phone was in the kitchen, at the end of a cord plugged into a wall, and so I’m not used to the free-floating phone, and my Beloved, about whom I’ve written numerous sonnets, saw me and said, “You look lost,” which is a harsh thing to say to an old fundamentalist, it brings back memories of gospel sermons about End Times and the need to repent. This present tribulation in Europe is a powerful message to America about the seriousness of our situation. Our long-running cultural “wars” are an amusement, the MeToo vigilantes, the evangelicals’ deal with the devil, the stolen election, but now the Cold War has resumed for real, and the lines are clearly drawn between Western democracy and authoritarian regimes. They stand prepared to wipe out individual freedom and rewrite history, and it’s time to decide which side you are on.


03/13/22 12:22 PM #10795    

 

James Hamilton, M. D.

Attention All You Southerners (Especially in Georgia and South Carolina)!  

There is a new invader from Asia in your states and it will probably spread elsewhere.

It is an arachnid called the Joro spider  - Trichonephila clavata. It is a large orb weaving spider that makes gold colored webs. If you see one please catch a photo on your phone or other camera and post it here on the forum. They are quite pretty, in a scary sort of way. 

And y'all thought pythons in the Florida everglades are hard to eliminate!

Jim


03/13/22 01:19 PM #10796    

 

Michael McLeod

Dan Cody! How the hell are you?

Happy to see new faces and points of view around here, jockeying for position between gasbag regulars such as myself.

Helluva world we're living in. Helluva planet we'll be leaving for those coming up behind us.

 

 


03/13/22 01:35 PM #10797    

 

David Mitchell

Stranger Than Fiction

 

I'm in a Thursday night Bbile Study group. It's about 8 guys, including my newest young assistant pastor, Josh. Josh looks just like buddy Holly, including the big black thick-framed glasses, and tall black hair. We tease him about it and he laughs. He laughs a lot. He is very funny - and he and his wife have 4 adorable kids. He just came over from the Baptist church to be ordained an Anglican priest. I was among a pretty good sized crowd at his ordiantion at our church. We are quite happy to have him and his young family. 

He leads our small group, and of coure he set some ground rules. One of them is "No Politics" in our sessions. Agreed by all. But I have suspected one of the guys from his subtle references in our first few meeetings. 

Last Thursday night Josh was away, atteding his son Cohen's first baseball game at a town several hours back up I-95. By the way, Cohen is my new buddy. He's 10 and has to manage with 3 sisters - poor guy! (But I love his sisters too.)

Anyway, we concluded our study session and began to offer our joint closing prayer - going around the table while each one of us adds his own special intention. I always add my 12 year-old granddaughter, who has gone into a shell since the Covid hit. And they moved to a place where she has no friends - even in her school.

We agreed that we all wanted to make special mention of the brave people of Ukraine and for releif from their suffereing. And then it turned crazy. One of our members started telling us how we were all believing the wrong news stories, that Putin was really doing great things for Ukraine, that Ukrianians were the perpetrators, that Ukraine was the center of the "deep state", and the most evil place on earth, etc. etc. 

We sort of dismissed him at first - sort of in disbeleif - but he went on and on. Our questions seemed to only make it worse. I was enraged, but fought to control my temper after a few challenging questions. We left and went to the parking lot to get in our cars.

I will get to see Josh this week and relate what he missed. And I will not be back with this particular group.

 

 


03/13/22 02:00 PM #10798    

 

David Mitchell

What do you think - Buddy Holly, or Father Josh?

(he actually does have a great voice - but he can't play the guitar)


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