James Hamilton, M. D.
John J. and All,
Again, here are some of my thoughts and opinions.
I would be quite happy with an initial vaccine that could reach a 70% efficacy rate. Some of the influenza vaccines in the last few years were not even that good. Of course, predicting which flu strains will be prevalent each season involves science, art and luck. Even though SARS-CoV-2 may have gained some minor mutations, among the various vaccines being developed I believe these will be covered since many attack different viral sites and mechanisms.
One must also look longitudinally over time (years) and what happens to individuals - and populations - who receive yearly flu shots. Even though there may not be a perfect match with the flu strains and that year's vaccine, those who have been getting yearly immunizations may be less likely to get, or have a milder course of, the flu.That is because cross-reactivity can exist and build up. I suspect the same will happen with coronaviruses.
I have said on this Forum several times that I am in favor of masks. But I do not believe they should be government mandated. Individual buildings and businesses can mandate them and patrons must observe that.
As all of you have probably observed, many, many people do not wear them correctly. Some masks are much better than others and some are very inadequate. Those "bandana" types - the ones that look like bandits in the old West wore to rob stagecoaches - are probably the least effective. But you see them everywhere.
If the government were to mandate masks (and there still remains the question if that is constitutionally legal), what kind would they demand and at who's expense? Would this be another socialistic freebie?
Let's face it (no pun intended), there is no 100% risk free world from this or other pandemics. When this all started months ago I believe I wrote a post about how pandemics end. That was quarantine, hygiene (personal and community) and vaccines.
I think very few people on either side of the fence believe this pandemic is a hoax. I do think that some measures taken were, in retrospect, overrated such as quarantining the well and not just the infected. But that was before mass testing became more available, and we still need more of that. Again we are still learning about this virus and how best to deal with it. I cannot overemphasize that point (but I will avoid using capital letters!).
I will take a vaccine that is safe even if it is less than perfectly effective (which it will be). Safety? Of course. I do trust that the scientific and medical communities will not release a vaccine that is knowingly unsafe. All medicines and vaccines have side effects. That is a fact. Some of those side effects do not become apparent until post-marketing studies are performed. And some even after that. And some that are never proven to be undeniably caused by that product. Zantac, anyone? Late night lawyer ads?
And, while we are on the topic of vaccines, flu shot time is upon us. We usually get ours in late September. There are a few different kinds again available this season. A new high dose quadravalent and an adjuvated quadravalent is now on the list. I have not gotten my most trusted publication on this year's choices yet but I expect it soon. From what I have read so far, I am leaning toward one of the new quads. The last several years we have opted for the quads instead if the trivalent shots. Regardless, I recommend flu shots for just about everyone. This year especially due to the potential need for hospital beds for COVID-19 patients if there is another surge of that disease.
Jim
|