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07/05/22 09:37 PM #11344    

 

David Mitchell

Larry,

I think it's safe to say that your drawings are sort of the "secret sauce" of our Forum. I can imagine the move is quite stressful but don't stop sending us your "pichers". 

 

Love the little stone house and the stone bridge. 


07/05/22 10:43 PM #11345    

 

James Hamilton, M. D.

Larry,

You and Peggy be safe on your cross country journey. It is very difficult to leave your home but family always comes first.

Are we now to expect some pencil drawings from the San Francisco street scene soon? If so, please leave out the "sidewalk deposits". Kidding aside, such scenes might make interesting art subjects. But, as always, be careful, take pictures and drive by quickly, in the daytime. 

Jim


07/06/22 06:26 AM #11346    

Joseph Gentilini

Have a safe trip to california, Larry.  send your nice weather here during our winters!  joe


07/06/22 11:31 AM #11347    

 

Michael McLeod

wow. I am touched by this new chapter of your life as much as I am by your sketches, Larry.

Happily, you're not moving away from us as far as the forum is concerned. Sentimentally,looking at your drawings and hearing of your move away from Columbus reminds me of when I said goodbye to Ohio decades ago. There's an ache there, but it's one many of us had to take in stride, and I know what lies ahead for you is joyful and that you'll stay in touch with us. westward ho!


07/06/22 03:02 PM #11348    

 

Mark Schweickart

Larry – Welcome to California, old man. It's about time. Unfortunately, it is a big state, and you will be a bit too far away for me to just caually drop by to say hello, but maybe our paths will cross sometime, who knows.

Also, let me second what Dave said about your drawings. I too especially liked the one of the stone house and the one of the stone bridge. The shading on the stones really made the image pop, as well as the shading on the slate roof, and on the water flowing under the bridge. I say "flowing" because the way you have rendered it, one definitely gets a subtle sense of motion in the water. I also like the composition – in that the bridge is not seen head on, but at a slight angle to the viewer, that is augmented by the way the creek curves out of sight in the distance. Great job.


07/06/22 03:30 PM #11349    

 

David Mitchell

Larry,

It just occurred to me that your family is moving in the wrong direction. You need to have them move back to Ohio - like everyone else in College football.  

You have all heard the news last week that UCLA and USC are moving into the Big 10.

I think it is really an awful idea. The rest of the Pac 10 will likely not survive the economic impact. Where does it all end? What will happen to the Rose Bowl? Between this and the "transfer portal" and the "NIL" payments permitted for players, I think we are seeing the death of college football as we know it. Maybe you can go out there and convince those people in L.A. to retract their decision.

 

 

(police are reporting an irate man in a black baseball cap running along the sideline yelling something profane at the "zebras" on the football feild)


07/06/22 03:58 PM #11350    

 

David Mitchell

Speaking of that, we are celebrating the 100th anniversary of the "Shoe", built in 1922. I have fond memories of sitting with my dad at most every home game from about 5th grade through high school - with one exception. I was sick as a dog and home in bed when they played Indiana to a 0 to 0 tie in an ice storm (about 6th or 7th grade?). I listened to that game (from my bed), and all that kept us in the game was (fullback) Bob White's great punting skills. I also did a few games in 4th grade but was still not yet able to follow the action. I was more interested in the ice cream man and the pop corn man.

It was a very priveledged childhood, sitting in dad's faculty season ticket seats. always between the 40 yard lines an up under "B-deck" - well under cover from the rain. I did spend one game up in "C-deck" in a pouring rain with friends, on a hisotric day - when Jim Marshall (who went on to play an all-pro carreeer with the Vickings - nearly forever) recoverd not one but two fumbles and returned them both for touchdowns against Purdue. Don't think that has ever happened before or since.  

But one of my favorite memories was hearing Dad tell of his childhood, playing in the construction site of the stadium. His early childhood home was either on 10th or 11th aveneue -  a block or two east of High Street. He was 11 years old and he and a buddy would ride their bikes down to the work site and gather frogs or toads along the river bank, while waiitng for the workers to go home. Then they snuck through a breach in the construction barrier (which they had created) and into the partially finished stadium. They could walk up the stairs to the top of one section that was finished and lean out over the edge and drop the frogs down to the ground below. Then they would rush down the stairs and see which ones had gone "splat" on the ground below.

I don't suppose he ever used that story on his application for medical school, or his appointment as Head of the Allergy Department in the Med School years later

 


07/06/22 07:00 PM #11351    

 

Julie Carpenter

Larry, I'm so sorry we won't see you at the reunion in September. But it sounds like a great move for you, your wife and family. I hope, as others have said, that you'll keep in contact with us through this site, and that you'll continue sending us your fabulous artwork. Live well, my friend!


07/06/22 07:08 PM #11352    

 

Julie Carpenter

Dave--have only seen your 2 posts of the Marsh Family, and now I'm obsessed with them, too! They are really something--all that talent in one family. And they must spend some time practicing, even though they make it look pretty easy. Thanks for sharing.


07/07/22 11:57 AM #11353    

 

Michael McLeod

Dave: Love that memory of your dad as a boy at the Horseshoe, danger to amphibians though he was.


07/07/22 06:21 PM #11354    

 

Michael McLeod

I am avoiding monkeypox, as in I don't know what it is and I'm not going to read about it but will just go my merry way and pretend it doesn't exist. (puts fingers in his ears, squeezes eyes shut and goes "lalalalalalalalala!)


07/07/22 06:38 PM #11355    

 

James Hamilton, M. D.

Mike,

Unfortunately, it does exist but I don't see it as being a scare such as COVID. 

Monkeypox, another viral disease, is in the smallpox category but not as serious. It is not generally transmitted via the respiratory route (except by intimate face-to-face contact) but rather by personal or physical contact with infected persons, animals or infectious material. Our smallpox vaccinations we all had as kids are likely to prevent severe disease (although immunity can wane over time). Also a more specific vaccine is available for people at higher risk of exposure.

Jim


07/10/22 08:29 AM #11356    

 

Michael McLeod

I Was Betrayed by President Trump

July 10, 2022, 5:00 a.m. ET

The author, Aquilino Gonell, a member of the Capitol Police, was injured during the Jan. 6 riot.

The author, Aquilino Gonell, a member of the Capitol Police, was injured during the Jan. 6 riot.Credit...Andrew Mangum for The New York Times

By Aquilino Gonell

Mr. Gonell is a sergeant in the Capitol Police.

As one of the Capitol Police officers who defended the United States against the mob on Jan. 6, 2021, I felt it was important for me to be in the committee room on June 28 to hear the former White House aide Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony. Along with three colleagues, I went, even though I knew it would be difficult to relive the horrors I witnessed. Although I experienced firsthand the brutal onslaught of the insurrectionists, I was shocked to hear Ms. Hutchinson explain the extent to which former President Donald Trump incited the people who almost killed me.

I am an immigrant from the Dominican Republic, a U.S. Army veteran and a sergeant who has worked on the force for 16 years, but I’ve never witnessed anything like the Jan. 6 attack — even in combat in Iraq. I was sure I was going to die that day, trampled by the hordes of President Trump’s supporters trying to stop the official transfer of power on his behalf.

Ms. Hutchinson, the former aide to Mr. Trump’s chief of staff Mark Meadows, testified that her boss said that things could get “real bad” on Jan. 6 and that Mr. Trump was warned that members of the crowd that had amassed were armed. Of course, I never would have imagined that an American president would not only not come to the aid of law enforcement officers defending the Capitol but encourage that crowd to march on it. Instead of being notified about the danger, my colleagues and I were kept in the dark, and thus walked into an ambush unprepared.

 

I don’t know what part of Ms. Hutchinson’s testimony enraged me most: that Mr. Trump wanted to be driven to the Capitol to lead the vicious riot, that he’d spurred his supporters on knowing they were armed, or that he ignored some of his advisers and even his daughter who told him to call it off, allegedly fighting with his own Secret Service agent after he refused to let the president be driven there.

Or maybe it was the fact that Mr. Trump eventually told the rioters who’d criminally assaulted my colleagues and me while trying to bring down the U.S. government: “Go home. We love you. You are very special.”

Other disturbing details I heard at the hearing had to do with Mr. Trump’s apparent disregard for everyone but himself. Before Mr. Trump addressed his supporters on the Ellipse, ahead of the insurrection, he was told that those who were armed weren’t being let through security checkpoints and, according to Ms. Hutchinson’s testimony, he said, “I don’t effing care that they have weapons. They’re not here to hurt me.”

Later, when rioters breached the Capitol, according to Ms. Hutchinson’s testimony, the former White House counsel Pat Cipollone told Mr. Meadows that they had to go see the president about what was happening. Mr. Meadows’s response was that Mr. Trump “doesn’t want to do anything,” Ms. Hutchinson recalled. Mr. Cipollone replied, according to Ms. Hutchinson: “Something needs to be done or people are going to die and the blood’s going to be on your effing hands.”

The nine people who died as a result of that horrific day — including the four officers who died by suicide after the attack — weren’t so lucky. Neither was I. At the West Front of the Capitol, I was attempting to hold a tactical police line along with about 60 members of my team, as we were taught at the academy, to keep the invaders at bay. We were savagely beaten and easily overpowered. I would later learn that the mob was estimated to be 10,000 strong.

 

 

 

It was like a medieval battleground. With our lives in peril, I would have been justified in using lethal force. But I didn’t want to spark a massacre. Over the course of the five-hour struggle, my hands were bloodied from being smashed by a stolen police baton. My right foot and left shoulder were so damaged that I needed multiple surgeries to repair them. My head was hit with such force with a pipe that I no doubt would have sustained brain damage if not for my helmet.

I have spent a year and a half in physical therapy for chronic pain that I have been told will never go away. My young son almost lost his father and my wife had to quit medical school, owing to the stress and demands of my ongoing recovery.

 

 After the riot, I received a Congressional Gold Medal and was recently named a Great Immigrant by the Carnegie Corporation. After recently passing the lieutenant’s test, I hoped to be promoted. Instead, on the day of Ms. Hutchinson’s testimony, I was heartbroken to hear my doctors tell me that at 43, I should no longer work with the police force.

The physical and emotional damage I sustained on Jan. 6 not only cut short my career, it has upended my life. Five of my colleagues in law enforcement died and more than 850 rioters were arrested. So many families have been ruined because of one man’s lust for power.

Even more galling are the Republicans who still refuse to provide testimony under oath and instead dangerously downplay how close we came to losing our democracy. I applaud the courage of the witnesses who’ve come forward to tell the truth. I know from personal experience — I have given testimony several times about that day to Congress, to the F.B.I. and in court — how distressing it can be. I just wish we all had been able to testify sooner, right after Jan. 6, when we might have had more impact.

The enabling of Mr. Trump needs to stop now. He should not only be banned from running for any other government office, he should never be allowed near the White House again. I believe he betrayed his oath to defend the Constitution, and it was to the detriment of me, my colleagues and all Americans, whom he was supposed to protect.


07/10/22 11:41 AM #11357    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

Meanwhile......around the world the "people" are waking up to the assault on their freedom to their God-given right to pursue happiness as the U.S. government entities in concert with the governments around the world, align their policies to the WEF.  Democracy is being attacked on all fronts and the people are rising up to protest while U.S. corporate media looks the other way.  None are so blind as they who will not see,

https://twitter.com/et_sharing/status/1545900502709321729?s=27&t=M0goToSIhUu7A6MvmkD9eQ

   


07/11/22 12:08 PM #11358    

 

Michael McLeod

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c


07/11/22 01:34 PM #11359    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

Not just my opinion, Mike.  The videos and unrest around the world speak for themselves.  People are being coerced by governments and coporate entities into behavior the elites have arbitrarily determined to be whatever they have decided is best for their global governance agenda and no dissent is permitted.

"Farmer protests are sweeping across much of Europe this week, mainly to join in solidarity with Dutch farmers in the Netherlands, because new government policies to reduce "nitrogen" emissions threaten to shut down almost 50% of the nation's farms. Given the fact that the Netherlands is the second largest exporter of food in the world, with only the United States exporting more food globally, these actions happening "across the pond" have significant impacts for those of us living in America as well. Hard as it is still for many people to believe, this is a Global plan to reduce the world's food."

The political left as a movement has proven to be made up of some of the worst people imaginable – The kind of people that thirst for destruction and take joy in the oppression of others. They might think they are reveling in a form of anarchy, but they are actually the opposite: They are chaos creators, but only as a means to gain total control.

However, there is one group of people that is even more annoying, and that’s the fence sitters and fake moderates.

Though these people will never admit it, there are times when social conflict arises and one side is completely right while the other side is completely wrong. Fake moderates pretend as if there are merits to the side that is wrong even when there are none because they want to appear as though they are “wise.” The truth is they don’t have the guts to take a stand one way or the other, and so they act as if neither side is correct, or that both sides are partially right.

Meaning, the side of destruction is given license to continue their pillaging because, hey, we don’t want to seem like we are discriminating or biased, right?

This is how societies and cultures are slowly but inevitably erased and the principles they hold dear are eroded to nothing. It’s mostly done through apathy and a sedate tolerance of corruption. Compromise is the hallmark of “democracy,” and it is also the root of tyranny. If people did not compromise on their principles and freedoms, tyranny could not exist. This is why the Founding Fathers of the US opposed pure democracy and formed our nation as a Constitutional Republic with checks and balances. Democracy alone often demands acceptance of poisonous and oppressive behaviors we might otherwise stop, all in the name of appeasing the “majority.”

Discrimination, at times, can be a good thing. It is a biological imperative that contributes to tribalism and has allowed humanity to survive as a species for millennia. Without the ability to discriminate, all behaviors no matter how radioactive would proliferate, and this is what we are facing today in western societies.

When tribes were faced with narcissist members, psychopathic members, or outright schizophrenic and delusional members, those people were often cast out or ignored and for good reason. When the insane and the sociopathic are allowed to integrate into a culture they are also allowed to inject a certain level of moral insanity into that culture. Insanity is generally an inborn condition, but insane habits can also be learned, and if people think there are benefits and gains associated with acting insane, some of them will do so and the problem will grow.

The political left argues that all discriminating tendencies are a form of bigotry. Yet, they are some of the most bigoted people on the planet when it comes to opposing ideals and beliefs. We can see this attitude within their own policies and the people they seek to censor. They readily embrace full bore erasure of all ideas that contradict their beliefs and they do this because they know, given enough time, that this kind of censorship works.

The examples are numerous. Anyone who points out the lack of science behind transsexual ideology and gender fluid theory is immediately a “bigot” and must be cast out. Anyone who questions extreme environmentalism and carbon controls is a “climate denier” and must be cast out. Anyone who questions government paid “medical experts” and their draconian mandates is “anti-science” and must be cast out. Anyone who claims that Critical Race Theory is highly inaccurate and misleading is a “racist” and needs to be cast out. Anyone who thinks teachers should not be allowed to use curriculum or refer to websites that  sexualize children in schools is a “homophobe” and must be demonized. It goes on and on.

I have even seen leftists in the media defend heinous acts such as pedophilia declaring it to be a "mental illness" because to be deeply opposed to any character trait of any human being is to commit the greatest sin in the leftist religion – Who are you to question the internal “truth” of an individual and set boundaries for their behavior? You have become intolerant, and therefore you are a heretic.

Make no mistake, this philosophy of “equity” might seem like random madness but it serves a very specific agenda. If all behaviors must be tolerated, then any evil can become acceptable. The only evil action you can then commit is intolerance of evil. See how that works?

Psychopaths and those that lack empathy can now rule over our culture because they cannot be confronted without great social risk. In a world where everyone is a good person at heart the idea of “equity” might work (probably not), but in a world where inherent evil exists and such people have no qualms about hurting who they want to get what they want, a culture built on equity is doomed to self destruct. All they have to do is claim that they are a part of an oppressed class, a victim group, and therefore you are not allowed to question their actions.

If men want to claim they are women and overrun women’s sports, women’s locker rooms, women’s bathrooms, women’s prisons and women’s health, we have to let them, because if we don’t then we are denying their “existence” as they see it in their own heads. If a pedophile wants to commit pedophilia we have to let them, because if we don’t we are guilty of discriminating against a psychological minority. If a mother wants to end the life of her pre-born offsping we have to let her, because who are we to tell her she has no right to what is not biologically her "own body"?  Leftists believe in no moral boundaries, only political boundaries. The only behaviors that can be restricted are the behaviors that conflict with their ideology.

The past few months have been rather surprising in terms of the Supreme Court’s decisions and I can only hope that this represents step away from our nation’s extreme flirtations with the leftist fold. The end result of the “do what thou wilt” philosophy is clear as day – It can only lead to complete societal collapse and indoctrination of future generations. And maybe, just maybe, some members of the Supreme Court have realized this.

Decisions in favor of the right to self defense under the constitution have finally shut down the political left’s obsession with disarming their opponents. They see the 2nd Amendment as the last stronghold of a conservative culture that stands in the way of their plans to absorb America, turning it into something unrecognizable in the process. As with all authoritarian regimes, leftists seek to take the right of defense away from anyone that does not believe as they believe. Their dreams are crushed, for now.

The decision to end Roe v. Wade and federal protections for abortion is perhaps the most surprising of all. Leftists view cultural tolerance of ending the life of pre-born children as their greatest victory. It’s not about women’s bodies or women’s rights; if abortion was about “human rights” then they would have to honestly take into account the rights of the child in the womb. But, they won’t do that, because rights are irrelevant to them. What abortion is really about is changing the limits of what Americans are willing to morally endure. What long held virtues are we willing to sacrifice, and how many children are we willing to sacrifice in the name of “tolerance and equity?”

The refusal to compromise on such issues might seem like a push to the “far right” of the political spectrum, and this is the great lie that everyone has been led to believe. Leftists have moved the goal posts so far in their direction that any moderate shift away from their end game is treated as an “alt-right attack” that will lead to fascism.  What’s really happening, in my view, is a slow return to center.

Millions of Americans do not trust the left and they certainly don’t want to live in a world where there are no boundaries and all discrimination is considered a hate crime. At their genetic core, most people understand that certain behaviors are wrong on every level and cannot be allowed. And if acceptance is actually a mantra for leftists, then they should also have to accept the existence of principles that do not align with their own.

The backlash against these people is very real. They see it as a conservative insurrection, but really, it’s only the beginning of a pendulum swing back to center by people who have a conscience. This swing has to be uncompromising, because if there is any semblance of weakness the leftists will use it to pull us all back into the insane asylum. There can be no moderation at this time, no fence sitting, no slack. The time for pretending there are merits to the leftist cult is over. The time to draw a line in the sand has begun.

___


07/12/22 08:57 AM #11360    

 

Michael McLeod

Just such a generalized mischaracterization, mm. By that I mean All those crazy posts blaming all the ills of the world on the left. Thought I'd respond with humor instead of getting all riled up about it. That's an iconic scene from a very funny movie. Didn't think anybody would take it seriously. Now I've gone and gotten you in high dudgeon again.

I do think -- speaking of generalities -- that it's no exagerration to say that the world has come to an extremely critical turning point. It was a complicated place when we came into it but it's astonishing how much it's changed and how much more frightening it is as we are leaving it. I will always remember that book, Future Shock, that came out in I think the 70s. Little did we know how appropriate that title would be for our generation. I sure wish I knew how things are going to turn out for the next one. They will have to contend with the fault lines in our democracy that are being exploited even as we speak.

One thing that stood out for me, when I say generalized micharacterizations, was somethign about how "corporate journalism" is paying no attention to world issues. Whoever said that needs to get a subscription to the NY Times or the Washington Post or any number of high end publications. 

It was that as much as anything that made me resort to the Big Lebowski. The dude abides.


07/12/22 10:48 AM #11361    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

Where have the NYT and the Washington Post been on reporting on Hunter Biden and the President's lie that he never discussed business deals with Hunter or any other member of his family, even as he sold off one million barrels of our strategic petroleum supply to China's state owned comany Sinopec? The same company that Hunter's private equity firm bought a $1.7 billion stake in several years ago,  Where has their investigative journalism been?  After all they chased after a false story about Russia/Trump collusion for three solid years only to find out that it was actually Hillary colluding with Russia to influence the 2016 election.

Before and after the election anyone who dared to mention the laptop were banned on social media and personally demonized. Now these two news sources are beginning to turn on Biden because his incompetence and his mental capacity is constantly being revealed, they have no choice.  Besides he has outlived his usefulness to the Left, the persons directing the agenda will soon be looking for his replacement and it won't be Kamala.  


07/12/22 01:39 PM #11362    

 

Michael McLeod

Well at least you're narrowing things down some.Hunter Biden is a mess and an embarrassment. I'll concede that point. HIs dad is a good egg but we need a whole other level of leadership that he has been unable to muster. He means well but "means well" - there's a good example of 'damning with faint praise' for you - is not enough given the mess he had to untangle and the need for a show of strength and charisma the cirumstances called for. As for the Russian ties, however, the fundamenta outcome was they were real, embarassing, dangerous, and part and parcel of Trump's unprincipled incompetence. Seems to me we've been over that here, unless I'm remembering the discussion from another site. 


07/12/22 07:09 PM #11363    

 

Michael McLeod

lovely writing in the ny times today. The lead is worthy of the occasion. here we are, tiny little critters in this vast and mysterious expanse, yet we know more and more about how it all began. we even know the date of its birth, give or take a few million years or so. And how amazing is it that a force we take for granted in our daily lives -gravity- acts as a lens on a grander scale that lets us time travel to the beginnings of the universe! 

 

The universe was born in darkness 13.8 billion years ago, and even after the first stars and galaxies blazed into existence a few hundred million years later, these too stayed dark. Their brilliant light, stretched by time and the expanding cosmos, dimmed into the infrared, rendering them — and other clues to our beginnings — inaccessible to every eye and instrument.

Until now. On Tuesday the James Webb Space Telescope, the most powerful space observatory yet built, offered a spectacular slide show of our previously invisible nascent cosmos. Ancient galaxies carpeting the sky like jewels on black velvet. Fledgling stars shining out from deep within cumulus clouds of interstellar dust. Hints of water vapor in the atmosphere of a remote exoplanet.

Their sum is both a new vision of the universe and a view of the universe as it once appeared new.


07/13/22 10:41 AM #11364    

 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

Inflation hits another NEW 40-year high under Biden.

Overall CPI: +9.1% since last year

Gas: +59.9%

Fuel Oil: +98.5%

Meat, Poultry, & Fish: +10.4%

Milk: +16.4%

Eggs: +33.1%

Coffee: +15.8%

New Vehicles: +11.4%

Airline Fares: +34.1%

Real Average Hourly Earnings: -3.6%


07/13/22 12:02 PM #11365    

 

Joseph D. McCarthy

First we had the invasion of thousands to stand in a line for up to six hours to drink Plinny the Younger beer.

Now we have hoards decending on a little place built by one Charles Schulz, a former hockey player and cartoonist, so that they could watch for eleven days as over 1,000 individuals ( 40 to 80 years young ) battle it out on the ice of Snoopy arena.  The annual "Old" timers Hockey competition is on.

 


07/13/22 10:58 PM #11366    

 

Michael McLeod

I really hate doing this. But I've been in the truthie trenches too long to let it go, even when it probably won't make any difference.

 

 

If you’re feeling flustered by high inflation, a meltdown in the markets, and the increasing likelihood of a recession, you’re not alone. And you’re likely wondering where you should be directing your ire.

President Biden may seem like the obvious choice, given that he and the Democrats effectively have control over the federal government, including the White House, the House of Representatives, and a razor-thin majority in the Senate. But Christopher Leonard, a journalist and author of the new book The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy, says that Biden isn’t to blame.

The Federal Reserve is.

“We are in a moment of crisis, it’s likely going to be ugly, and there’s no easy way out of this,” Leonard tells Fast Company.

“All of this stuff is hitting in the year of a midterm election, and conventional wisdom says that Democrats will get demolished,” he says, but “this problem has been 10 years in the making—the fact that the stock market is crashing right now has little to do with who’s in the White House.”

Leonard, who also wrote a recent op-ed on the topic for The New York Times, says the current crisis is being made immeasurably worse by the fact that the Federal Reserve, back in 2010, got Wall Street and the economy at large hooked on “easy money”—effectively, a combination of 0% interest rates and quantitative easing programs, which pumped trillions into the markets over the course of many years.

And, instead of taking its foot off of the gas as the economy improved after the Great Recession, the “easy money” persisted, inflating asset prices. The Fed was then left with no way to raise interest rates or start tapering off its asset purchases without freaking out Wall Street and causing a market meltdown, much like is currently happening.

“The Fed tried to tighten previously,” Leonard says, when it increased rates starting in late 2015.

But that came to a head in late 2018, when markets saw a big decline, causing the Fed to reverse course and start cutting again. “During the period between 2016 and 2019, [Janet] Yellen and Jerome Powell came in with an agenda of normalizing raising rates and reducing the Fed’s balance sheet. But as they did it, the markets reacted,” he says, “leading to the ‘Powell pivot’ in January 2019. They backed off and couldn’t normalize.”

That was when it became clear, Leonard adds, that the Fed was steering the economy into uncharted waters. A few months later, in 2019, the Fed was actively lowering interest rates all while there was no inkling of a coming recession—the “easy money” would continue to flow to keep the markets (and the White House at the time) happy. Now, though, it’s time to pay the piper, as the Fed has no choice but to raise rates to tame inflation, which is causing the markets to fall, and could very well lead to further economic contraction.

“If we had displayed more wisdom in the 2010s, we wouldn’t be in such a terrible predicament,” Leonard says. He does note that, for people who want to try and hang the current economic mess on President Biden, that the additional $1.9 trillion in pandemic stimulus that the Democrats passed in 2021 could have added to inflation, but that it was merely “the caboose on a train of $4 trillion under Trump.”

Even so, Biden will likely pay the political price in the years ahead for inflation, the bear market, and a recession that may or may not happen. Leonard does stress, however, that voters should try to look deeper at the causes of the crisis, which he believes are squarely at the feet of the Fed.

“At the end of the day, this is not Biden’s fault,” he says. But come election day this fall, “all the Republicans have to do is stand on the sideline and point in order to win.”

 


07/14/22 09:21 AM #11367    

 

John Jackson

Mike, thanks for your post which makes the point that low Federal Reserve interest rates (hovering near zero for most of the past five years) have played a huge part in the inflation we’re seeing now.  But to be fair, neither the Republicans nor the Dems wanted to take away the punchbowl and end the party (something that is finally happening now). 

For those of you who would blame all this on Biden, Trump threatened to fire current Fed Chief Jerome Powell (a Republican who Trump appointed) when he raised the Fed’s rates in 2018 – Trump wanted to keep the party going at all costs.  And the only reason Trump didn't fire Powell is that it's an independent job shielded from politics and Trump didn't have the power to follow through on his threat.

I would also blame the continuing serious snarling of supply chains caused by Covid which have caused many goods to be in short supply as well as the war in Ukraine that has raised both energy and food prices.  And the high prices for cars and many other products that rely on semiconductors has has been largely caused by the chip shortage which first emerged during the Trump Administration.  I could use MM’s super partisan logic and blame Trump for the chip shortage (after all, it happened on his watch), but, like inflation, this is a complicated problem that has been building for years and, much as I would like to blame him, it’s not really Trump’s fault.

To lay all of this at Biden’s feet (especially gas prices) is unbelievably mindless.  MM, if it's all Biden's fault can you explain why inflation is now a worldwide phenomenon? The economies of virtually all the world's advanced nations are experiencing inflation very similar to ours.

To be fair, the final Covid stimulus bill the Dems did a year ago was probably either too large or not needed, but it hardly explains the magnitude of inflation we're seeing now - quoting a line from Mike’s piece, “the additional $1.9 trillion in pandemic stimulus that the Democrats passed in 2021 could have added to inflation, but it was merely “the caboose on a train of $4 trillion under Trump.”

 


07/14/22 09:33 AM #11368    

 

Michael McLeod

 

Poor Biden. Given his poopy-head predecessor he's the ultimate "clean-up on aisle three" president.

On another note: Let's all stick around as long as we can, shall we? As complicated as life seems to be, the important stuff is ultimately the picture of simplicity. I keep forgetting that. Part of a story I read today:

 

Health food or exercise alone isn’t enough to prevent chronic disease, new research shows. Contrary to popular belief, you can’t outrun the toll of a poor diet — and healthy eating, on its own, won’t ward off disease.

Most people know that working out and eating well are critical components of overall health. But a sweeping study published this week in the British Journal of Sports Medicine suggests that hitting the gym won’t counteract the consequences of consuming fat-laden foods, and mainlining kale can’t cancel out sedentary habits.

“Sensationalized headlines and misleading advertisement for exercise regimens to lure consumers into the idea of ‘working out to eat whatever they want’ have fueled circulation of the myth about ‘exercise outrunning a bad diet,’” the study authors wrote.

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Previous animal studies as well as a few human ones have backed this up, suggesting that, at least in the short term, strenuous exercise can counteract the effects of overeating.

So an international team of researchers examined data from nearly 350,000 participants collected from the U.K. Biobank, an enormous medical database with health information from people across Britain, and followed up over a decade-long period. The study participants, median age 57, were healthy at the outset of the study, meaning they were not diagnosed with conditions like cardiovascular disease, cancer or chronic pain.

Analyzing self-reported questionnaires, the experts broke people’s diets down by quality. For instance, high-quality diets had at least 4.5 cups of fruit and vegetables per day, two or more servings of fish per week, less than two servings of processed meats per week and no more than five servings of red meat per week. The study did not measure discretionary foods like soft drinks or desserts, said Melody Ding, the lead author of the study and an associate professor at the University of Sydney.

The researchers also measured activity levels using responses from another questionnaire that asked about the total minutes participants spent walking and engaging in moderate physical activity, like carrying light loads or biking at a steady pace, and vigorous physical activity that lasted more than 10 minutes at a time. The authors wrote that it was the first study to examine diet and exercise alongside both general mortality and specific lethal diseases, like cancer.

Not surprisingly, people with both higher levels of physical activity and better quality diets had the lowest mortality risk. Overall physical activity levels were associated with a lower mortality risk, but those who regularly engaged in vigorous exercise — the kind that makes you break a sweat — had a particularly lower risk of cardiovascular disease mortality. And even just 10 to 75 minutes per week made a difference.

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Regardless of your diet, Dr. Ding said, “physical activity is important. And whatever your physical activity is, diet is important.”

“Any amount of exercise is protective,” said Salvador Portugal, a sports health expert and assistant professor in the Department of Rehabilitation Medicine at NYU Langone Health who was not involved in the study. But you can’t rely solely on your workout to maintain good health, he added.

These findings underscore what many doctors have seen in practice, said Dr. Tamanna Singh, co-director of the Sports Cardiology Center at Cleveland Clinic who was not involved with the study. For instance, she said, there are many components of heart health, and “optimizing one thing is not going to necessarily improve your cardiovascular risk.”

She sees patients who classify themselves as amateur or professional athletes and are shocked when they suffer cardiovascular events, she said, without considering their diet. “Often they’ll come to me after an event and say, ‘I work out so much. Why did I have a heart attack?’”

On the flip side, even those with the most nutritious diets in the study saw considerably worse outcomes without some form of regular fitness regimen.

That doesn’t mean people can’t treat themselves after a workout, Dr. Singh said. (She’s a marathon runner herself, and she looks forward to nachos after a long run.) “If you are, for the most part, intentional about what you put into your body and intentional with how you move your body, you’re doing enough.”


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