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David Mitchell

My dear classmates,

It was at a very early age that we young men of OLP were concerned about our poor classmate John. He showed little hope of any kind of academic achievement or success in life. Had we (Tom Litzinger, Keith Groff, Kevin Ryan, Charlie Kaps, Mike del Bianco, Johnny Schaeufele, David Barbor, Tommy Swain, and I) not all prayed our Rosaries daily for his eventual survival, he might still be wandering in the darkeness.

He could even now, yet have discovered his first notes of Tom Clancy, or the Chieftians, or Mary Black. He might never have achieved this "Celtic Cure" -  this secret elixer that has saved his soul.

Just think, He might have gone through life without ever hearing that sweet sound of either the tin whistle or the Gallway fiddle - both requirements for inventing a machine the reads the thickness of the layer of silcone (to about a thousanth of an inch) on most tiny little micro chips made today.  (Oh, and gives out the "light refraction index" - but, of course, you all probably knew that! )

So as Barry Fitzgerald would say (In his Irish brogue) - "Glory Be ta God".

We owe it all to the power of prayer.  

Musha ringham dingham dah!, Wack foe the daddy oh, there's whiskey in the jar"  

John Jackson

100 points to Dave for his reference to “Musha ringham a durham da “ and PP&M’s “Gillgarry Mountain", one of the formative songs of my early years. 

And, Jim, after all our political sparring, I appreciate your graciousness when you refer to those “Flatt and Scruggs tunes you used to attempt back in the day”.  Were you not so kind, “botched” is the word that might have come to mind.

Michael McLeod

I also think we are overdoing this thing. My college has asked me to be ready to start teaching my class on line but I hope it doesn't come to that. It is a chance, though, to develop good overall habits about keeping ourselves healthy. My contribution will be to work on my Mr. Spock "live well and prosper" one hand salute in lieu of hugs and kisses.

My other personal experience apart from maybe learning to teach from home, which wouldn't be all that bad, is watching my significant other's daughter deal with the decompression and ptsd of having lived through the shutdown of the culture in China. Reflecting the larger picture, the supposed cure was worse than the disease from her point of view, as well. The CDC rep who visited with her once she got back home to Orlando was utterly cool about the whole thing  -- checked her out, asked a few questions, told her to take her own temp and record it for two weeks (which she has done religiously) and avoid crowds. In Beijing she said she could remember having her temperature taken a half dozen times or more when she left her building, (wouldn't let her out until they did a temp check) left her neighborhood, (temp check) had to wear an identification badge around her neck the whole way as she worked her way along mostly deserted streets through various blockades (temp check check check ) in order to get the stores that were still open for basic supplies (temp check at each store, most of which were sold out of what she needed anyway.)  Then temp check to get back into her apartment building.  Now she's back home in the usa and tomorrow she's free and clear as far as the cdc is concerned after a two week quasi quarentine. Oh and the crowds at Disney are unabated if that makes you feel any better. 

Michael McLeod

Ok sorry to blab over my own self-imposed limit but I had to share this.

He is a native New Yorker but lives down here now and I met him through Rollins, the school where I teach.

Then Donna and her husband were kind enough to squire him around Barcelona when he was there to make an appearance. 

Really a beautiful guy and a rarity as a poet. He could do stand-up and be just as successful. 

He was also poet laureate when 9/11 happened and read a poem about it to congress that drew tears.

When he talks about his childhood reading experience on this PBS interview that was just done recently, I guarantee you it will take you back.

In the scenes where he walks out onto the dock and you see buildings across the water, that's Rollins College. 

https://www.pbs.org/video/billy-collins-peoples-poet-4xr4tr/?fbclid=IwAR3jiaW8lK18uIiO71CfWypIPHHuaPs-gxWS-mt4hCGCpbwObcI9jUUnsRc

David Mitchell

Okay Mike,

Interesting piece on Mr. Collins.

But what, prey tell is the "Catholic Philopatrian Literary Insitute"

(p.s. I am one of those jerks who reads the credits after each movie)

Michael McLeod

I don't know. What do I look like, some kind of reporter? Billy's Catholic- raised, is all I know. Jesuits, I think he told me.

Now if only there was some device you could use to look it up yourself.

Michael Boulware

Every topic that confronts us in our country seems to be categorized into "for or against" by the political parties. I do not think the Coronovirus cares if you are a Republican or a Democrat. Italy is on lockdown, Universities like Ohio State and Princeton are doing classes online, and the CDC is telling us to avoid large groups. LET'S PAY ATTENTION. Wash your hands frequently, avoid hand shakes, cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing, don't touch your face and go to your mouth, be careful opening doors and touching hand rails.

This disease is a lot tougher on people over 60; guess what? We qualify.

Noone is blaming Trump for the origin of COVID-19. Please do not join him in his ho-hum attitude toward the Caronavirus. It is present and presents a threat.

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

Mike, regarding your comment about Trump's ho-hum attitude over the coronavirus situation.  I am wondering what more you would have him do to address the virus.  From what I have been reading, his administration has taken reasonable steps within their control to prevent its spread, beginning with placing a temporary ban on travel to and from China over 5 weeks ago https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/31/trump-weighs-more-evacuations-of-americans-from-china-over-virus-109910 which was derided by many in the MSM as well as the WHO who reported that the ban was detrimental to the world's economy and creatiing undo panic.                https://twitter.com/YossiGestetner/status/1236535801074159617/photo/1

Some other takeaways:

U.S. Surgeon General, Samuel Adams stated in an interview with Jake Tapper 2 days ago that based on his experience on the task force and being in the Situation Room every day that the medical input is taken,  there are multiple doctors in the room and their voices are in no way, shape, or form suppressed.  He went on to state this:  “And so, we actually feel pretty good that some parts of the country have contained it, just like when you look at the flu", citing the lack of widespread deaths. “And when we look at the flu tracker, some parts of the country are having much more severe flu seasons. Some are having very mild flu seasons. The same thing for coronavirus.”

It also should be noted that the Obama administration had previously insisted on federal jurisdiction via FDA medical testing.  Trump, however, has recently instituted changes which now allow, throught the FDA, for the states to have the authority to conduct tests for COVID-19 in state labs. Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC explained that federal government regulations had actually bottlenecked the process and slowed the ability of university and state labs to conduct these tests.  In fact, Secretary for Health Dr. Brett Giroir just confirmed in a Saturday email. "Testing capacity is ramping up substantially, with 1.5 million tests produced last week. 1.1 million have been shipped, and 400,000 are ready to ship – likely on Monday."

I would suggest that none of these actions are indicative of a ho hum attitude, but of substantive actions taken to address a fluid situation.  Perhaps some feel that certain actions should have happened more quickly, but I for one am grateful to not live in a nation such as China, where they have drones surveiling neighborhoods to report citizens who leave their homes without wearing their masks. 

We live in a globalized world where certain risks have to be assumed if we are to interract in the world as it is today.  We certainly cannot quarantine everyone in their homes in an effort to insure that no one ever comes in contact with COVID-19 or any other infectious disease.  We must assume personal responsiblity to act judiciously with regard to placing an heightened importance on all of the recommended precautions.  Trump may speak outrageously, but I judge a person and an administration more by their actions.

Michael McLeod

I'm not the Mike you're directing this towards, MM, so I'll restrict myself to a single point.I think many things Trump says on many fronts betray his ignorance and cold-hearted cunning. For me the most revealing comment he made about the current crisis is when he said he didn't want the passengers on the cruise ship to taken off the ship and be isolated and cared for on a military base on shore  "because it will hurt our numbers." 

I said I'd restrict myself to a single point and I will. But I could cite many, many examples of statements - which do indeed betray character - that Trump has made that betray his true and quite cold-hearted, manipulative, inherently deceitful self.  

And one last thing: On this, and other matters, one great rule of thumb if you are fact checking is to consult a source that has .org on its website. That means it is staffed by professionals in whatever area it is that you are researching, or fact-check organizations that have reputation and a stated purpose for being even-handed - as opposed to think tanks or other sources that are driven by opinion slants in either direction or monied interests.

You'll discover things are more complicated that you'd like them to be, but at least you're on the right track. 

Here, for example, on the CDC/Obama issue.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/democrats-misleading-coronavirus-claims/

Michael Boulware

Mary Margaret, I stated that Trump was not responsible for the disease, but he did not listen to the advice given to him. His goal was to contain the COVID-19. He wanted to keep it out instead of preparing for its arrival. He has been criticized for doing that.

Trump constantly assured us that the Corona Virus was contained and he had it under control. He was wrong. The Corona Virus has been in Washington since mid-January. Flights to and from China were canceled January 31. Travel restrictions were placed on south Korea, Italy, and Iraq on February 27. Fedral funding for testing kits was reduced , we did not have enough of them and we still do not.

If feel that if he listened to the CDC he would have developed a better plan; he did not listen to their advice. That is why I feel the federal government could have done more to prepare for The Corona Virus.

John Jackson

Let me say first that part of me agrees with those who think the current reaction to coronavirus may be overblown – people always fear (and overreact to) new threats far more than the threats they’ve grown accustomed to.  Having said that, I am concerned that a number of scientists, including the Surgeon General just yesterday, are now saying that we’re moving from a policy of “containment” to “mitigation” and that suggests to me they have more or less  given up on trying to keep the general population from being exposed.  

Last year we had 34,000 deaths from the flu and presumably many (most?) of us were exposed to it, in varying degrees.  But the coronavirus mortality rate, while low compared to Ebola and SARS, is apparently 20 (or more) times higher than  for the flu.  So if the general population is exposed, doesn’t that mean we could be looking at many times more coronavirus deaths than from seasonal flu?

If we’ve done anything right to handle the coronavirus situation, it’s not been because of, but in spite of, Trump. As Mike’s example of his incredible comment about the cruise ship shows, in so many ways Trump has signaled to everyone in government that he wants this to go away because he thinks it affects his re-election chances.  And those signals have made the government’s response slower and more tentative than it should have been.

And Anthony Fauci and the experts at CDC and NIH are indeed speaking, but they’re tempering their remarks and always looking over their shoulder for Trump’s reaction, remembering all the people that Trump has canned who didn’t toe the line.  And although it makes me sick that Fauci (and other scientists who have spent their lifetimes studying this stuff) have to answer to Trump, I’m glad they’re living to fight another day because if they’re fired they will be replaced by the typical fawning and incompetent yes-men (and women) that Trump has increasingly chosen to staff the upper levels of the federal government.  

James Hamilton, M. D.

Apples and Oranges

This is more of my thoughts about the coronavirus which will dovetail on my comments in Post #6914. It is more of an "Op-Ed" but based on some known facts. Obviously, politics have gotten into the discussion of this disease but I want to concentrate on the medical/scientific aspects of it.

There have been a lot of comparisons mentioned in the press and on this Forum between COVID-19 and influenza infections. Some are valid. As I stated in #6914 personal, community, national (and international) hygienic and quarantine measures are important factors to help interrupt cycles of trainsmission for both. They are both viral infections of the respiratory system. However, outside of these I feel the comparison fades into the apple and oranges realm.

There have been decades of research into influenza viruses and the vaccines that can prevent them. The route which the flu viruses traverses through the USA is fairly consistent and goes from SW to NE in most years. This usually happens from the late fall into mid spring or so.The probability of which flu strains are going to occur is usually predictable and the vaccines are guided by those predictions. In most years the vaccines seem to be around 40-60% "effective". Even given that, the vaccines may still be proctective or, at least partially so (by attenuating the disease severity), in a multitude of individuals.

Past vaccine recipients may also have a greater protective effect when there is a current year "mismatch" since the viruses may share some properties with strains and the current vaccine may have an "anamnestic" effect on the host patient's immune system to develop a higer level of antibody response.

 Another factor is that of "herd immunity" wherein more patients who get the vaccines and, therefore, may not become infected with the disease, cannot transfer the influenza infection to non-vaccinated persons.

Unlike influenza (which can be treated with things like Tamiflu and others) there are no drugs to offer patients in the early stages of COVID-19 infections.

COVID-19 has no vaccine currently. It is unknown whether it is a seasonal virus. It has not yet established a "natural" pathway for progression across the country since it is being spread mostly by the traveling public. We also don't know if infection and recovery results in immunity and there has not yet been been enough time for herd immunity to develop. 

Why does COVID-19 appear to not affect children as severely as adults? My guess is that a child's lung cells may not yet have developed the needed "attachment" sites for the virus. But that is my own GUESS.

My opinion here is that comparisons between flu and COVID-19 are way to early to to have much validity. That includes death rates. Once we find a vaccine and/or antiviral medications that are effective, then we can make more appropropriate comparisons.

Jim

ADDENDUM:

Recently it has been found that COVID-19 can be shed in stools. This brings up the possibility of a fecal-oral transmission (sounds gross but it is mainly a breach in hand washing after toilet use type of prevention) and  prompts me to wonder if that shedding continues for some time after resolution of the clinical respiratory disease or the quarantine time. After all, the source of the infection in China was believed to be in a market where food is sold and handled. 

Indeed, there is much more that is needed to be learned about this virus. 

Michael McLeod

One question, Jim. As I understand it, the flu vaccine that everybody our age should get on an annual basis is adjusted, year to year, based on guesswork. They concoct a vaccine based on the genetic blueprint of the strain or strains that appear to be the ones that will be in circulation during that particular "flu" season. Can we assume that once they figure out the blueprint of this virus, it will just be added to the cocktail that comprise the the annual flu shot that is available each year?

I hope my layman's language is accurate enough to get my question across.

And if I may take one more shot at the Prez - and this is why your support of him puzzles me so much - his reaction to this flu is consistent with his uniform, horrendous and most of all dangerous disrespect for science. It matches up precisely with his climate change denial profile and the way he operates in egotistical ignorance across the board in other areas, such as diplomacy. He always says "I have a good grasp of this." "I just follow my gut." "I'm really good when it comes to this." And in that way he gives himself permission to be lazy, to be willfully and blissfully ignorant, to be succeptible to wacKo conspiracy theories, to ignore the information the experts are trying to give him so that he can make informed decisions. Again I am putting things in layman's terms and all those points and behavioral analysis has been better done by experts over these past few years.

I know it's bad form to ask you for an explanation and then say something that will get your dander up but I'm thinking you're up to both challenges. 

David Mitchell

Ready or Not?

The question of us being ready for this virus or not seems to have been politicized.

Imagine that !

I get it that politicians need to cling to the British axiom - "Remain Calm, and Keep On (playing, dancing, drinking, or wathcing re-runs of Pettycoat Junction")". Panic does not help the situation. But making false claims doesn't seem to help either. Sadly, for an official to admit honestly, "I don't know" is a capital crime in today's spoiled, perfectionist, demanding society.

Who could expect us to have every single possible potion on hand - for a disease we've never seen before. Is anybody certain we have enough potion on hand for "Ghost Riders in the Sky" disease, or "Anxiety Before the Michigan Game" syndrome, or "Jolly Green Giant" phobia? But then, what about Purple, or Yellow Giant phobia variations? I do wish someone could come up with a potion for "Losing My Car Keys Syndrome". 

Damn, I'd buy it by the gallon. But then, I might be accused of causing panic.

But covering up the simple fact that we really do NOT know for sure is misleading. And if done for purely political motives, is dishonest.

* In an article in this morning's USA Today would lead one to conclude that we are quite short of the neccessary test kits for lack of one particular ingredient made by the German Company Qiagen. That company has recently gone to three shifts a day in their production plants located in Germany and Spain. They were not negligent, dishonest, or even politically incorrect, but simply caught off guard by this sudden and unexpected spike in demand.

Gee, I've never been guilty of being caught off guard - not ever.

So who will win the race?

I have a daughter in Washington State - on Whidbey Island, just out in the "Sound" from Seattle. She says they are way behind on test kits locally.

James Hamilton, M. D.

Mike,  

There is actually a lot of science and epidemiology that goes into predicting which strains of the Influenza A and B viruses will be prevalent each year. Once that is determined then appropriate vaccines have to be developed and mass produced for distribution. All that, every year! That being said, there is an element of "guesswork" in the process. It is like predicting the weather, particularly here near the mountains. The meteorologists gather the data from satellites and several computer modules, put it all together and then broadcast their best guess at where the major snowfall will hit. Unfortunately, if the storm comes over the wrong side of Pikes Peak it may inundate a different part of the area.

Research is currently looking into developing a "universal" flu vaccine that would cover all posible antigenic varieties. That would certainly be a major breakthrough! 

I strive to avoid poltical discussions on these infectious disease epidemics. But I will say thay I think we are taking a reasonable approach here in America. If anything, too much. I think that President Trump often talks in one manner but is doing the correct thing behind the scenes. When you have a serious infectious disease spreading worldwide and the best prevention currently available is simple hygiene, people get scared and panic results. They want a cure and a vaccine yesterday. That is an unrealistic wish. 

Jim 

Michael McLeod

Thanks Jim. I have a feeling it is both tedious work in execution and fascinating science in its underlying principles. 

Mary Clare Hummer (Bauer)

Definitely a different spin on March Madness this year, don't you agree?   Remember back on February 26 when we were told by the person in the White House that there were 15 cases and the 15 "within a couple of days is going to be down close to zero"? Imagine my surprise that this was not true. My daughter sent me a couple of tips she found.  (That's a whole other new and uncomfortable experience--having my children worry about ME!!) Anyway these two things look easy and even if they don't help detect anything, they do no harm!!

Don't forget also to wash your hands, sign up for Netflix, hang around the house, and keep current on what the health experts are saying.  Good health to you all.

Clare

James Hamilton, M. D.

Clare,

I just read that the NBA has suspended it's season until further notice since a Utah Jazz player tested positive for COVID-19. I suppose that could eventually happen to March Madness. 

One comment on that article you posted about the Japanese doctor. The coronavirus has recently been found to be shed in human stools (see my post #6939) and I suspect it got there after passing through the acid bath of the stomach. Whether that acid inactivates the virus is unknown. Also, millions of people in the USA and around the world take acid suppressing meds (Tagamet, Pepcid, Prilosec, etc.) and have significantly decreased stomach acid. 

It seems that we are on a steep learning curve with regards to this infection and there are lot of unknowns. 

Jim 

David Mitchell

Clare, 

Just follow that bit of old wisdom;

           AVENGE YOUR SELF.

 LIVE LONG ENOUGH TO BE A BURDEN TO YOUR KIDS.

--------------

Up late here so I will add to Jim's post - NCAA suspends all audiences.

And by the time you read this, you will all know that Tom Hanks and his wife tested positie in Australia - I think it was just today - Wednesday.

And the City of Savnnah, with what is often referred to as the second or third largest ST. Patrick's Day celebration in America (normally only about 500,000 of my closest friends) has just "postponed" it's huge  St. Patrick's Day. 

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

All of which is to say that this too shall pass, as all things in life do.  Most everyone I know is taking precautionary steps and heeding the recommendations to minimize contagion with this virus. 

The reading from today's Mass seems rather timely:  "Thus says the Lord; cursed is the man who trusts in human beings, who seeks his strength in flesh, whose heart turns away from the Lord.  He is like a barren bush in the desert that enjoys no change of season, but stands in a lava waste, a salt and empty earth.  Blessed is the man who trusts in the Lord, whose hope is the Lord.  He is like a tree planted beside the waters, that stretches out its roots to the stream.  It fears no the heat when it comes, its leaves stay green, in the year of drought it show no distress, but still bears fruit.  More tortuous than all else is the human heart, beyond remedy; who can understand it?  I, the Lord, alone probe the mind and test the heart, to reward everyone according to his ways, according to the merit of his deeds."  1 Jeremiah 17:5-10      

The most important lesson I learned from my parents and from my aunts and uncles of the "greatest generation" when confronting the trials of life is the lesson in the above Scripture text......."trust in the Lord, whose hope is the Lord".

Mary Margaret Clark (Schultheis)

And on a lighter note:  

Michael McLeod

Just got the word. Campus is shutting down. Will be teaching my class remotely for the rest of the semester and should be prepared to do the same in the fall. Seems a bit severe. 

James Hamilton, M. D.

Mike,  Colorado College here in the Springs is also closing early for Spring Break and is considering remote teaching for the rest of the semester.

Jim 

Michael McLeod

I am really going to miss my students. It's just a small class -- 18 students -- and just a very interesting mix....for a third of them, English is their second language, so I've got quite the global blend and different backgrounds in the room, all of them working their butts off. Funny that this thing has been a remote, philosophical spectacle to me up to this moment -- that was quite a luxury, not being directly affected apart from being a shoulder to cry on when my girlfriend was worried about her daughter in China. But of course my woes don't compare to those who will be really hurt. Damn. Hold onto your hats folks. Smoke 'em if you got 'em.

James Hamilton, M. D.

I think it's about time we hear from our foreign correspondent about how some other parts of the world are reacting to the coronavirus pandemic. What say you Donna?

Jim